How is Climate Change Shaping the Coffee Industry?

Though agriculture is a significant driving factor for climate change, the consequences of unstable weather patterns are also hindering the production and transportation of many food products, including coffee.

Why is Coffee Vulnerable to Climate Change?

Coffee plants require a very specific climate (approximately 18-22°C for Arabica and 22-28°C for Robusta) for the complex sugars in the beans to develop, and any changes to weather conditions can have disastrous consequences for harvests, effecting both the flavour of the beans and overall yields.

Areas impacted by increasingly severe El Niño and La Niña weather events arising due to global warming will experience alternating droughts and flooding. During periods of extreme heat, plants will wither and water usage on plantations will increase to compensate for the rapid rate of evaporation. Conversely, prolonged heavy rainfall can waterlog roots, leaving plants vulnerable to rot and fungal diseases, such as coffee leaf rust (la roya).

For many of us, smaller yields will mean an increase in the price of coffee, though the consequences will be felt more acutely among coffee farmers, who may lose their livelihoods and ability to provide for their families. It has been predicted that by 2050, coffee producers will have lost 30-60% of land suitable for cultivation, pushing plantations into new areas to meet demands and accelerating deforestation.

How is Climate Change Impacting Transportation?

Shipping coffee to locations across the globe via sea freight produces far fewer emissions than air freight; however, this mode of transportation is becoming increasingly unreliable due to the effects of climate change.

Climate change is already causing issues in overseas transportation, such as low water levels in vital shipping routes due to significant droughts. The Panama Canal is a crucial waterway for trade to and from the U.S. (40% of all U.S. container traffic passes through this route), and in 2023 and 2024, it experienced 41% less rainfall than the average, resulting in the lowest water levels since records began. To reduce the volume of water lost during the opening of locks, the Panama Canal Authority limited the number of vessels permitted to travel through the canal and imposed weight restrictions on cargo. As a result, many cargo ships were required to take longer alternative routes, using more fuel and therefore generating more emissions.

Though water levels have now returned to normal, in an effort to safeguard against future extreme weather conditions, the Panama Canal Authority is currently developing additional climate resilience measures. This includes the construction of the Rio Indo Dam, which is due to begin in 2027, but will require entire villages to be flooded, displacing entire communities.

This is just one example of how climate change is already disrupting trade routes, the lives of those in affected areas, and the continued function of businesses. As it is exceedingly difficult to cultivate coffee outwith specific equatorial regions, the industry is likely to face mounting challenges in the coming years due to its reliance on imports.

How Can We Improve Industry Resilience?

While scientists have been working to develop more climate change resilient varieties of coffee via crossbreeding, a recent study has indicated that at least 60% of wild coffee species are at risk of extinction, primarily due to the effects of climate change and deforestation. There are 124 species of wild coffee known to science: each with different qualities that include the potential for drought-tolerance and disease-resistance. Preserving this genetic diversity is essential, not only for biodiversity, but for the long-term survival and adaptability of the coffee industry itself.

As experience has taught us, relying upon monocultures is a dangerous practice for both industry and environment. Not only does it create ecological deserts, but it also facilitates the rapid, uncontrollable spread of disease; leaving no room for contingency if plantations were to be wiped out entirely. The coffee leaf rust outbreak that occurred across Central America and the Caribbean in the early 2010s caused widespread destruction, affecting over 70% of farms and causing over 1.7 million coffee industry workers to lose their jobs. This fungus thrives in warmer, more humid conditions, and is likely to become more common as temperatures rise and rainfall patterns become more erratic and intense.

The demand for coffee is growing globally, making the need for more sustainable, climate change resistant cultivation practices increasingly pertinent. Agroforestry practices such as shade-grown coffee can provide a degree of protection from the heat of the sun under extreme conditions. However, these methods alone are not sufficient to counter the impacts of climate change, and it is important that we collectively work to reduce emissions in addition to adapting our industry practices and lifestyles to become more climate-resilient.